Thursday 15 / October / 2026
New Delhi: Major international institutions have raised their growth forecasts for India, reflecting confidence in the country’s economic momentum and resilience amid global uncertainty. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its GDP growth projection from 6.3% to 7.1%, while S&P Global raised its forecast from 6.6% to 7%.
Fitch Ratings increased its estimate from 6.4% to 6.9%, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) from 6.6% to 7%, and Moody’s Ratings from 6% to 7%. All five institutions have upgraded their projections, with four now expecting growth of around 7% or more.
The revisions come amid strong economic activity across services, manufacturing, investment and consumption, suggesting that India’s expansion is supported by multiple growth drivers.
After contracting by 5.7% in FY2020-21, India’s economy rebounded with 9.6% growth in FY2021-22. Growth remained strong at 7.6% in FY2022-23, 7.3% in FY2023-24 and 7.2% in FY2024-25, before accelerating to 7.8% in FY2025-26.
The latest quarterly figures reinforce this momentum. Real GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27, compared with 6.9% a year earlier. Nominal GDP growth accelerated to 10.3% from 8.1%, taking the economy’s size to ₹88.27 lakh crore. Gross value added (GVA), which measures economic activity across sectors, grew 8.2%, up from 7% in the corresponding quarter last year.
Services remain a key driver
The services sector continues to underpin economic growth. Tertiary-sector growth accelerated to 10%, compared with 8% a year earlier. Financial, real estate, information technology and professional services expanded by 12.1%, while trade, hotels, transport and communication grew 8.5%. Public administration, defence and other services recorded growth of 7.5%.
The expansion strengthens India’s position in international services markets while supporting domestic businesses and investment.
Industrial activity has also gained momentum. The secondary sector grew 8.6%, compared with 6.1% a year earlier. Manufacturing growth accelerated to 9.2% from 8.3%, while construction expanded 7.7%, against 5.2% previously. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services grew 8.9%, recovering from a contraction of 1.8%.
Investment and consumption strengthen outlook
Investment has emerged as another important source of strength. Gross fixed capital formation at current prices rose 20.4% in the first quarter of FY2026-27, compared with 5.4% a year earlier. Sustained investment could expand productive capacity, improve infrastructure and strengthen industrial supply chains.
Private final consumption expenditure grew 9.9%, up from 8.3% in the corresponding period last year, accounting for 55.6% of GDP. The figures underline the importance of household spending and domestic demand in cushioning the economy against external shocks.
Exports are providing additional support. Combined merchandise and services exports rose approximately 15% to $399 billion during April-August 2026, compared with $345 billion a year earlier.
Together, robust services, improving manufacturing, rising investment, resilient consumption and expanding exports are diversifying India’s growth model.
Sustaining this momentum will depend on productivity improvements, infrastructure development, technological advancement and employment generation. If these gains continue, India could strengthen its global competitiveness and reinforce its contribution to world economic growth despite persistent international uncertainties.
